Three Reason Why Black Friday Defendants Will Never Go to Trial

I. Nelson Rose made a comment during his Webinar about the Future of Online Gaming in the United States that he did not expect any of the indicted individuals from Black Friday to go to trial.  While this isn’t entirely unexpected considering that two have already filed plea bargains, some think that John Campos, Chad Elie, and others should take their chances in court.  Here are a few reasons why that will never happen.

Too Much at Stake

Look at what is at stake for the individuals indicted on Black Friday.  They are looking at the prospect of spending the rest of their lives behind bars as well as facing massive fines that they are not going to be able to repay in most cases.

While clearly they would not probably serve the 30 to 50 years that many of them are looking at, they are almost a lock to serve 5 years or more each in prison if they are convicted.  If they can cut a deal that will see, based on the deals so far, no more than 2 years in prison, they will take it.  Chances are that they would not even serve half of the time that they receive, so a year or less in federal prison vs. 5 to 20 or more is a nice tradeoff.

Luck Vs. Skill Not the Key

“If they can prove poker is a game of skill, then this will all go away.”  That is nice in theory, but the likelyhood of being able to prove to the satisfaction of a Federal court remains to be seen.  Yes, we all know that long term that a skillful player can win.

However, where does luck stop and skill begin.  A Virginia judge basically stated that while poker can involve skill, the result of each hand is still uncertain.  How can you be certain that two players that play each other 100 times will come out a certain way.  You cannot, even with the best players.

They Are Guilty

Regardless of what you think about the validity of the UIGEA, the online sites and those connected to it still violated the law.  The DOJ has the proof and if any of you have ever received a payout from an online poker site pre-Black Friday, you have proof too.

I have a check stub from Full Tilt stating that my payout in 2010 was for “Investment Dividends.”  I didn’t have a ton of money online, but after seeing that little note, I pulled all but about $300 spread out over 3 sites.  The online sites are guilty, and pursuing this further is going to probably just make matters worse for them.

None of what I have said above is exactly rocket science, but many refuse to see the truth.  Online poker legalization is not going to be a matter settled in Federal court.  It is going to be a state issue, and one that will be explored at least 50 times over the next five years in my opinion.  By then, all those that have and will file a plea bargain will be out of prison and Black Friday will be a closed chapter in online poker.